Showing posts with label Celtic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Celtic. Show all posts

Sunday, October 05, 2014

SPFL Premiership: Celtic's stumbles give Deila food for thought

Yesterday I was writing about how the SPFL Premiership has been been a bit of an oddity this season.

It gets odder.

Celtic could have jumped up to third by winning today's home game against Hamilton.

Then this happened:

Celtic 0, Hamilton 1, the Scottish Football Blog


Celtic 0, Hamilton 1.

Which leaves the table looking like this:

SPFL Premiership league table after Hamilton beat Celtic


Hamilton top, Celtic sixth.

Maybe the drama of Hamilton's defeat of Hibs in the play-off matches has given them a momentum that survived the summer.

Maybe it's just a flash in the pan.

Hamilton won't win the league. But Celtic need to do more than just win their game in hand to get back to the top of the table.

When Ronny Deila was given the Celtic job a lot of people asked "who is Ronny Deila?"

It's a problem for him, not yet a fatal problem but an issue nonetheless, that we're into October and people are still looking at each other and asking "who is Ronny Deila?"

Sixth in the table after eight games and no Champions League football (despite getting a couple of chances to make it).

Thursday's Europa League win over Dinamo Zagreb was a bright spot. The continued rehabilitation of Craig Gordon to fill the gap left by Fraser Forster's departure is another.

His is a team in transition. But being Celtic manager means making your mark on the team while still winning games. If you don't get the knack of that quickly you've got problems. Ask Tony Mowbray.

And the weight of expectation and the evidence of history combine to make unusual defeats look more meaningful than they actually are.

So this wasn't just a bad day at home to a useful Hamilton side.

This was a first home defeat to this opposition since Neville Chamberlain was still trying to appease Hitler.

It ends a run of home form that stretched to 34 games undefeated.

Celtic's strength is usually to rise above the rest of the teams, a refusal to get embroiled in that aspect of the Premiership which means anyone can beat anyone else on any given day.

To do that you need to be winning more than 50% of your games.

He's won four from eight in the SPFL and seven from 17 in all competitions. That's not good enough.

As I wrote yesterday, Celtic will win this league. The board should also show patience with Deila, they need to back their man.

But the patience can't be endless. Spending much longer than a quarter of the season mucking about in mid table isn't acceptable.

My personal view is of a manager still uncomfortable in a new role in a new country. I don't think he's handling the press particularly well and, Celtic fans might want to correct me, I don't sense a huge connection with the support.

Sometimes managers, however good, just don't "fit" with certain clubs. Deila's not yet convinced me that he's not fallen victim to that situation.

After the game he told the media:

"I'm not worried."

Any more results like today and he'll probably be feeling a lot less sanguine about his team and about his own position.

Saturday, October 04, 2014

SPFL Premiership: Spinning me around

It suddenly strikes me that for the first time in nearly eight years of the Scottish Football Blog, the team I support isn't in Scotland's top division.

(Obviously I have been aware that Hibs are now playing in the Championship, I just hadn't really thought about it in the context of the blog before. More in the context of "why has this happened? Why, why, why?" The answer is, of course, because Hibs were crap.)

The lack of emotional involvement should probably help the blogger go about his or her business with a more professional detachment.

But in my case the blogger watches Sportscene in the pub every Sunday with the disinterested air of the lord of the manor forced into attending the chambermaid's wedding.

Which explains why taking a proper look at the Premiership table tonight left me to conclude, with stunning clarity, "what the actual fu..."

If Hibs have offered little else over the last few seasons it now seems they did at least bring the security of a little sanity to proceedings.

And now what?

SPFL Premiership analysis by the Scottish Football Blog


Take a look at it. A nonsensical oddity of a league table.

Ross County down there at the bottom. That might not be a massive surprise.

They'll stay there even if they win tomorrow.

But if they lose Inverness will go top with Dundee United.

Unless Hamilton beat Celtic. Then Hamilton will go top.

If Celtic win they'll be on the same points as Hamilton and Kilmarnock.

That's newly promoted Hamilton and the just-avoided-play-off-spot-thanks-to-the-main-striker-who-then-buggered-off Kilmarnock. That Kilmarnock.

What's it all about?

The prediction that will burn millions of pounds if it doesn't happen: Celtic win the Scottish Premiership with a month or so of fixtures to spare.

Ronny Deila's got a hell of a lot to worry about if they don't.

Aberdeen on their current run (four wins out of five games undefeated) should be capable of making a run for second.

Dundee United might curse a lack of consistency in finishing third. That's the same lack of consistency that Jackie McNamara warned of and suffered last season. Biting him on the bum again this season. He needs to sort that.

The rest?

What the hell do you mean "the rest?"

I've got no confidence in the top three, so - Celtic apart - the rest is a horrible mizture-maxture of unknown unknowns.

Ross County don't look likely. I'm not convinced the managerial change will work. But they do love a January transfer window in Dingwall.

I thought St Mirren made a mistake appointing Tommy Craig as manager. Some people are natural assistants. People like Tommy Craig.

Tommy Craig would vehemently disagree with me. This is his chance to prove me - and others - wrong.

And what of Motherwell?

What of Motherwell?

Two wins and a draw from nine games. That's bad form. It can be recovered. But bad form can suck you in and drown you.

I've seen it happen. Believe me, I've seen it happen.

I take part in a SPFL Premiership predictor league at work. When I finished bottom last season I blamed it on my emotional predilection for backing Hibs to win every week.

I got a bottle of Buckfast for my troubles.

I'm struggling along close to the bottom this season as well.

I blame that on the Premiership being a league that has, in the most entertaining way possible, taken leave of its senses.

The best way to deal with that?

Keep smiling, enjoy the ride, celebrate the craziness.

And keep a bottle of Buckie on hand when you're checking your betting slips.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Lennon rues fitness setbacks

Scottish Football Blog, Billy McNeill, European Cup winning captain, Celtic
Celtic’s hopes of continuing to play in Europe after Christmas already look bleak in the football betting odds but they might have become even less likely after Kris Commons picked up a hamstring injury and Scott Brown was handed a three-match ban.

Having already been beaten by AC Milan and Barcelona, a Champions League double-header against Ajax would appear to give Neil Lennon’s side the chance to gain at least third spot in the group and an opportunity to play in the Europa League in the new year. But full back Mikael Lustig, is also a major doubt for the visit of the Dutch side to Glasgow after sustaining a hip injury during Sweden’s World Cup qualifier against Austria, which forced him to sit out his country’s 5-3 home defeat to Germany.

Adam Matthews is out for three months with a shoulder injury so Lennon’s right-back options are extremely limited.

According to betfair, the 42-year-old former Leicester City midfielder said: "We have two very good right-backs who may not be fit for the Ajax game.

"Mikael's hip locked against Austria. He does have hip and groin problems and we will have to manage him during the week. Efe Ambrose had played international football at right-back so he is a possibility."

Dutch winger, Derk Boerrigter, is still struggling with an ankle complaint and he is unlikely to be back for the game against his former club, who have only picked up one point from their first two Champions League group encounters.

Joe Ledley's fitness might not allow him to play the full game although Emilio Izaguirre has recovered from illness.

Lennon has also revealed that the club will be appealing against the three-game European suspension imposed by UEFA on Brown following his red card in the Champions League defeat by Barcelona.

Thursday, October 03, 2013

Today I hate football

Looking back on the Champions League week that was, guest blogger Malcolm Best - pundit and presenter on The Football Special - has a lot to get off his chest:



In my game as a presenter and pundit on a football show - have a look you’ll fuckin’ love it - you have to both love and hate the game of football. Today, I hate it.

I hate it today chiefly because of Neymar’s inability to act, Torres’ inability to be a man and because just six games in people are already talking about whether some managers will still be in a job by November.

Let’s start with Neymar. I’ll not dance around the topic. I think the lad’s a cock. He’s skilled in the art of dribbling, control, passing, running with the ball and all the elegant skills that make a player great. However, last night, he also displayed something that is becoming commonplace in all football - both British and Continental - and that is the despicable inability to act well. He showed a level of acting skill that would fail an audition for any Channel Five home-made drama.

I am not condoning what he did. I think he’s a cock for making a mountain of a molehill. I tell you: if you’ve been hit by a Scot you know about it. Back in my playing days, I once fell foul of Big Malky Muldougal. I still have to visit the hospital, forty years on, to get my dressing changed.

What irks me is the lack of true acting skills. It’s school Christmas Nativity stuff. Neymar’s performance was the worst I’ve seen in ages (although the camera man from ITV was a little off the mark with following the action). What Neymar needs is a lesson or two in the Method: a touch of the old Stanislavski (the acting coach, not the nippy winger who played two seasons with Bromley FC). He needs to really inhabit the body of a man who has been mortally wounded. He also then needs to be able to do what every footballer fails to do after acting like they’ve been shot by a nine-calibre gun: look amazed at their recovery. They never run to the referee or the bench and look amazed that they have miraculously been cured of their fatal injury within a matter of mere seconds. I want realism back in football. Not this fantasy fooking football shite.

If you get hit, go down like Al Pacino would. If you’re going to act then go for an Oscar as well as the Balloon Door (you know what I mean, that fancy award that Messi owns). If you can’t act then don’t go down. Only make the most of a slight touch if you can really make it as an extra in Saving Private Ryan sequel.

Torres gets me riled. He gets me wound up like a cuckoo clock. So, the FA let him off with a slap across the wrist because the other match officials at the game didn’t see enough to charge him with misconduct. When are we - as fans - going to demand that they make the decisions like this from the same seat the majority of us watch our football by - the TV. Strike a light! He’s done it, we all saw it and yet the match officials have a touch of the old Arsene Wengers and didn’t see it. I wish I didn’t see Neymar’s shite acting but I did. I’m scarred for life.

Finally, the papers are already questioning the future of some managers while Five Live’s 606 and TalkSport have already had the “he must go” crowd out. Di Canio aside (I think he’s just a tit), there’s no one in the Premier League who should worry about their jobs. The world and his dog knows that it is not until seven games into the season that the LMA wake up their rent-a-quote press team (“he didn’t deserve to go”, “managers need more time”, “football’s changed”). Although, as a pundit I am paid to say that I think Moyes should worry. While I am at it I think Pardew should be looking at holiday destinations after Christmas. And as for Mourinho… watch this space. Everything was set up for Pep Guardiola and the Special One isn’t so special anymore.

If you want to hear more of my comments and opinion then tune into my show on a Friday. The Football Special gives me a soap box to shout from and has some cracking sketches too.

By the way, if you want something for your i-pod, check out Jim Daly’s football songs on JimDaly.bandcamp.com - especially this one on Neymar!

Back of the net.

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Champions League: Celtic look for Barcelona repeat

The second week of the 2013/14 Champions League.

A fashion parade for European football`s most powerful, a competition borne from the game's obsession with money.

Yet a tournament that can still give us a display of the beautiful juxtapositions that sport makes possible.

This evening Celtic host Barcelona in Glasgow. Last Tuesday night Celtic were being knocked out of the Scottish League Cup by Morton.

If Celtic can repeat last year's famous win then the playground logic surely follows: Morton could finish tonight as a better team than Barcelona.

A nonsense of course. But the Champions League in its current form was not designed to give Scottish clubs a platform - so we should cherish a game that links the brilliance of Barcelona with the lower reaches of the SPFL Championship.

Can Celtic trump that brilliance?

A big, big ask. The absence of Lionel Messi robs the match of its shiniest star but Celtic and Barcelona continue to inhabit different planets.

Last year's win is evidence that it can be done - but it doesn't make tonight`s job any easier.

The first round of games pointed to a maturing of Celtic - a more patient side, more comfortable keeping the ball, firmer in the conviction that they deserve to be on this stage. Yet none of that mattered in the end. For all the plaudits, for all the progress, they lost 2-0 to AC Milan.

There`s always a chance though. Get the game plan right, get every man to stick to it, ride your luck, hope your opponents aren't as ruthless as they can be.

Miracles can happen.

Just ask Morton.


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Thursday, July 25, 2013

St Johnstone and Hibs face Europa challenges

The second week of European participation for Scottish clubs and we're one for one so far.

Celtic got Cliftonville out of the way with a 2-0 win at Celtic Park on Tuesday for a 5-0 win on aggregate.

If Neil Lennon pointed to a certain rusty profligacy it was job done with a minimum of fuss.

Sweden's Elfsborg - who knocked 11 past Latvian side Daugava (who, Wikipedia tells me, have conceded 21 goals in three European ties) - are the next hurdle as Celtic look for a repeat of last season's European progress.

Elfsborg - currently fifth in the Swedish league - should present a stronger challenge than Cliftonville but it's a challenge that Celtic should be able to overcome.

Scottish clubs face Europa League qualifying games
Sterner tests too for both St Johnstone and Hibs in the Europa League qualifiers tonight.

St Johnstone face Rosenborg in Perth with a one goal lead safely delivered from the away leg. If that result was a fantastic achievement it has not persuaded betting sites to revise their opinion that the Norwegians are favourites to progress.

The first leg win was an ideal start for new manager Tommy Wright, who already appears so comfortable in the role that Rosenborg manager, Per Joar Hansen, has been moved to accuse him of playing mind games.

Wright had claimed that losing at this stage in the competition would be a disaster for the Norwegians who currently lead their domestic league. He's also spoken about springing a surprise on the visitors in his team selection. No doubt designed to keep the pressure off his own players, it gives the impression that this is a man relishing his new job.

It might be argued that taking a 1-0 lead into a home time against opponents considered favourites for the tie is a tricky proposition.

Perhaps. But it's a problem Pat Fenlon would love to have as he tries to engineer a way back from 2-0 down as Malmo - 16 games into their league season and second in the table - visit Hibs.

The loss of two early goals in Sweden looked like not only ending Hibs Europa participation but signalling the start of a heavy defeat.

While Malmo continued to threaten and dominated for large chunks, what belief Hibs take into this game will stem from the way they held out at two down and the chances of their own - limited but very real - that they created.

A Malmo goal will finish Hibs off, leaving Fenlon in the invidious position of requiring goals and also having to rely on a defence that looked shaky in losing two goals in such quick succession last week.

It's been a long time since Easter Road was enthralled by a famous European night. In a week when Famous Five legend Lawrie Reilly's shadow looms large, Hibs need to try and replicate the nights of yore this evening.

It would take something out of the ordinary for both Hibs and St Johnstone to progress but it would be big, big boost for the newly named Scottish Premiership if one or both could.

And something to note for proponents of summer football in Scotland: a worst case scenario a couple of weeks hence could see three of our teams dumped out of Europe by Scandinavian sides already reasonably deep into their domestic seasons.

Let's hope results go well enough to leave that debate - worthwhile as it might well be - for another day.

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Scottish football: A good news round-up

Scottish news update provided by Cole Ryan of BangTheBook.com. follow me on twitter @coleryan9

If the people of Scotland still believe in Scottish football as their national sport then it is a measure of a national trait of defiance. News headlines, front page and back, might still be generated by the sport but too often recently it has been for bad news rather than for outstanding match results.

This summer, as last summer, the biggest story has been financial. While the problems at Rangers hogged the headlines in 2012, 2013 has seen Hearts enter administration amid the collapse of owner Vladimir Romanov’s business empire and the club struggling to pay wages. They’ll start next season on minus 15 points in the top flight.

Dunfermline, too, remain in administration and have now suffered consecutive relegations to find themselves in the third tier of Scottish football where they’ll find themselves battling against Rangers, as the Glasgow club look to continue their progress through the league structure.

Elsewhere a number of club are looking to rebuild squads in the summer transfer window as players move on to search for more bountiful wage packets or are sold to help balance the books in a game that is not awash with money.

But perhaps Scottish football is beginning to see the darkness partly lifted. The 2014 World Cup qualification campaign has been a struggle that has already seen off one manager, Craig Levein, and any chance of qualifying disappearing. But new manager Gordon Strachan finally made his mark before the summer break with a battling 1-0 win over Croatia with a young and inexperienced team.

And the latest news this week from BangTheBook Football has also been more positive. Scottish clubs are long used to starting their European campaigns before the domestic season has started but they’ve not always enjoyed the finest result. This week, however, they could reflect could reflect on two wins from three matches.

If Celtic’s victory of Cliftonville was expected it was a professional performance nonetheless, goals from Mikael Lustig, Georgios Samaras and James Forrest delivering three away goals.

And St Johnstone delivered the result of the week with an unexpected 1-0 victory away to Rosenborg. Frazer Wright gave the Perth men an early lead and they weathered some serious pressure to hold on for the win and to bring a crucial away goal back to Scotland. Manager Tommy Wright was able to reflect on a “magnificent” win in his first competitive match since taking over from Steve Lomas as manager - in what was also St Johnstone's first ever away win in Europe.

If they can get through the home tie, St Johnstone's reward will be a match against Malta's Valetta or FC Minsk from Belarus as they would enter the next qualifying round as seeds.

Hibs were the only Scottish side who couldn’t record an away win this week, losing 2-0 to a superior Malmo side in Sweden. But after conceding two goals in two minutes to be 2-0 inside 15 minutes Hibs might feel they deserve some credit for keeping the score down, relying on some excellent saves from goalkeeper Ben Williams to retain faint hope for the return leg in Edinburgh.

While Scottish football has never lost its ability to make headlines, it is to be hoped there can be many more weeks like this one where the stories relate to good news on the pitch rather than bad news off it.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Getting back in the swing

The season's first competitive game for a Scottish side last night.

And a 3-0 win for Celtic in their Champion's League qualifier against Cliftonville, a fine start to their three round route to the Champion's League proper.

Tonight Hibs and St Johnstone face away games to Malmo and Rosenborg as they look to buck the SPL's recent travails in Europa League qualifying woes.

Motherwell join the fray in the next round of Europa qualifying - and the bookies suggest that both Hibs and St Johnstone will be upsetting the odds to join them.

The return of competitive football means that a new domestic season is dawning.

A new season under the auspices of the Scottish Professional Football League, the brave new organisational structure that doesn't seem to have quite got round to deciding on names for its various leagues.

If the new governance model has yet to convince that it offers anything other than more of the same, what does top flight football have in store for us?

After years of the SPL being a two-horse race, the loss of Rangers left Celtic to race to winners' enclosure alone.

The scored more goals, had a more miserly defence and won more games than the opposition to finish 16 points clear.

So far, so predictable. But Celtic actually dropped 14 more points than they had the season before, wholly dominant but never invincible.

Motherwell, finishing second for the second year in a row, finished on just one point more than they had the previous year.

In a Rangers free season the other clubs couldn't fill the gap, Motherwell's 63 points in second place mirroring the sort of total that previously carried a team to third (Aberdeen in 2006/07 were the last side outside Celtic or Rangers to top 63 points, finishing on 65 in third place.)

In 2011/12 31 points separated Motherwell in third and Hibs in 11th. Last season just 22 points separated Motherwell in second and St Mirren in 11th.

Celtic could afford more off days because everyone else was still beating everyone else, with less and less predictability.

An accumulator win on SPL results was a rare joy last season, a more hard fought challenge than becoming lady captain at Muirfield.

What of the season ahead? More of the same. Celtic the favourites by a massive distance, beneath them Motherwell, Aberdeen, Dundee United and Hibs are tipped in best of the rest race to second.

Always difficult to have much confidence in predictions at this juncture, of course.

The revolving door at most clubs makes each summer a period of rebuilding rather than consolidation.

Motherwell will be reworked, Aberdeen rebuilt by Derek McInnes, United setting out on Jackie McNamara's first full SPL season as manager and the departures of Leigh Griffiths and Eoin Doyle have seen Hibs shorn of almost two-thirds of their league goals tally.

Celtic will win the SPL, whether it's a romp or a canter is pretty much up to them.

Elsewhere we should again see a certain unpredictability, the challenge for those eleven clubs is to raise the standard of that unpredictability.

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Scottish Cup: Hibs Hibs Hooray?

One year and one week on.

Again we trudge to our buses, looking like the club shop has thrown up on us, ready to troop through to Hampden.

Ready to watch Hibs wrestle with their Scottish Cup destiny. Part 111.

An unlikely final appearance.

The first consecutive finals since 1923 and 1924 (those losses courtesy of Celtic and Airdie).

Another final reached in a season of patchy - if improved - league form.

An unlikely manager.

A twitchier Rod Petrie might have jettisoned Pat Fenlon after last year's final.

A twitchier Rod Petrie might have had second thoughts during the mid season SPL malaise.

His mind must have almost have been made up just 28 minutes into this year's semi final, a flimsy Hibs buffeted by a Falkirk who couldn't quite believe their luck.

Yet Fenlon came through and delivered unto Petrie's piggy bank the proceeds of another cup final appearance.

The first Hibs manager to reach two national cup finals since Alex Miller.

That achievement took Miller seven years. It's taken Fenlon just 18 months.

The first manager to lead a team other than Celtic or Rangers to two Scottish Cup finals in a row since Jim McLean battled his own cup hoodoo with Dundee United in the 1980s.

In another place we might hail Fenlon as a modest history maker already.

That we don't can be blamed on that stuttery league form, that pitiful day last May and the weightier history of Scottish Cup scars stretching beyond Scotland's collective living memory.

The route to this year's final was not without challenges.

The psychological barrier of beating Hearts in Hibs first Scottish Cup game since "that" day. The turgid spectacle of yet another clash with Aberdeen. The yapping of Kenny Shiels on a vist to Rugby Park.

Then that semi final - the easiest game on paper turned into an ultimately exhilarating battle by a paper thin defence.

Now Celtic. The hardest of the lot. The SPL champions who won more games this season than Hibs have won in the last two.

Celtic, perennial botherers of the SPL's top spots against Hibs, of late trapped in risky relegation battles or assorted bottom six bore-offs.

They've met at this stage before. A 1-0 win for Hibs, the last win, in 1902 with another Irishman calling the shots. A stalemate in 1914, followed by a 4-1 Celtic win in the replay.

A 1-0 Celtic win in that 1923 final. A 6-1 Celtic win in 1972 and then a 3-0 win in 2001.

Four Celtic wins, one Hibs win. 14 Celtic goals, three Hibs goals.

And, while Hibs are not alone in being embarrassed by four or more goals in a final, no team has ever recovered their cup equilibrium quickly enough to return and make amends the following year.

As ever when Hibs and Celtic clash, form and ability favours the west.

As ever when Hibs and the Scottish Cup clash, history favours the agony being prolonged for yet another year.

Bereft of expectation, hope offers us Hibs fans a life raft to cling to as we float on our dreams along the M8.

Unlikely? Definitely. Impossible? Not a bit of it.

Have Hibs not got a better win percentage at Hampden than Celtic over the last couple of seasons?

Are those chastening experiences last May and in that pathetic half hour against Falkirk not simply Hampden learning experiences, not killing us but making us stronger?

Have this year's preparations - on the field and, free from daft trips to Ireland, off the field - not been much improved?

Have Wigan and Atlético Madrid - and before them Swansea and St Mirren - not shown that unlikely cup final wins are in fashion?

Does the strange life of Leigh Griffiths - talisman, father, daft laddie, finisher, trouble magnet - not demand a defining moment in green?

Is the first Sabbath final not the ideal occasion for answered prayers and redemption?

Does history not, at some stage, have to stop spitting in your face?

Maybe. Maybe not.

Everything that surrounds the game, the raw emotion that a Hibs win would deliver, is meaningless for 90 minutes.

Play like idiots, become a laughing stock. Been there, done that.

Play well, take any slice of luck that comes your way, hope that Celtic again mislay their Hampden mojo and anything is possible.

Like last year, tears won't come with defeat. It's winning that will reduce this fan to a gibbering, sniffling wreck.

So there we are. Pat Fenlon, history maker.

Go ahead, son. Make me cry.

Sunday, January 06, 2013

SPL: Breaking bad?


The SPL's winter leave of absence seems to have taken a few people by surprise.

It is only a fortnight though and we're not supposed to have a winter break as such, so they've maybe been trying to keep it quiet.

There also seems a reasonable chance that the holiday will land plum in the middle of the most clement stretch of winter weather.

Maybe somebody could ask Neil Doncaster what the chances of that would be, of the SPL ushering in a winter break through the back door only for the bad weather to arrive in grand style just as we get back to the football?

They'd need to find him first. The Scarlet Pimpernel of Hampden is Mr Doncaster.

They seek him here, they seek him there. And then they just give up because he's never got anything useful to say anyway.

Still, the Doncaster Bank Holiday is a fine time to look back on the season so far. A chance to savour what we've seen and look ahead to the joys still to come.

So: Celtic will win the SPL. Dundee will be relegated. The ten other teams will fill the remaining ten positions, the order to be decided when their befuddling mutual pattern of inconsistency settles into a more readable pattern of inconsistency.

Simple game, punditry.

Celtic, certainly, have huffed and puffed. Heroic carrying of the standard in Europe doesn't always equal domestic bliss. As Churchill was rudely awakened by the order of the boot in 1945, so the SPL is blowing a giant raspberry at Georgios Samaras this season.

Theories abound on their SPL stutters.

I got a close up view last Saturday at Easter Road. It didn't appear to a be a Krypton Factor-esque teaser.

There are good enough players in the SPL to take advantage of bad defending and there is spirit enough in most teams to stand up to Celtic's attempts to get back on terms.

They might do that standing up physically, aggressively, energetically and in your face-dly. The answer, it seems to me, is not to get increasingly miffed and give up the ghost but to try and match the chippy upstarts.

When Celtic do that consistently - or when other teams find they have other battles sapping their energy - they will accelerate clear.

And the acceleration will be smoother if they avoid entrusting their best chance of any given game to Efe Ambrose's knee.

Dundee's board this week stepped back from the brink of sacking manager Barry Smith and promised to spend some cash in January.

I fear this might mean poor Barry gets his jotters in February after Dundee whittle away January spending no money.

Either way they look doomed. They look like a side that fell short of promotion getting an unexpected promotion with little chance to prepare for the challenges of that promotion.

Strange that. The unluckiest winners of Scottish football's daft summer.

If the job Smith did in taking Dundee to second in the First Division was good enough for his board, then the job he's doing for them in the SPL should be good enough for his board.

The rest? Stick a pin in them. Few will splash the cash in January so the transfer window is likely to be a study in survival, of holding on to assets and snapping up the odd bargain.

Relaxing at Butlins or Haggerston Castle this coming fortnight each manager will be able to reflect on good games, a few decent results and bad games, the odd poor run.

"We're building something here" say managers in the English Premier League and Scottish national coaches on the brink of being sacked.

Most SPL managers are only ever building a work in progress. The one that emerges with the most competent transitory package will grab second place in the league. High stakes when you're trying to build a house on sand.

High stakes and high pressure.

Kenny Shiels has gone the full Colonel Kurtz in Kilmarnock. Every post match interview Terry Butcher gives is a coded plea for help as his red wine dependency grows in Inverness. John McGlynn was reduced to tramping about in the Dingwall puddles wearing a shirt and tie coupled with tracksuit bottoms.

Will nobody think of the managers?

Or the accountants?

Money. Money. Money.

Neil Lennon bought Celtic the winning lottery ticket with Champions League progress.

Things have been bleaker elsewhere.

Hearts extended the begging bowl, counted the takings and still don't look as if they're completely sure how the fiscal circle can be comfortably squared.

Rod Petrie produced a set of accounts at Hibs that proved that frugalness and disastrous leadership create a black hole. 0 + 0 = -£900,000.

I've started building a scale model of Aberdeen's proposed new stadium out of matchsticks. It will be finished before Stewart Milne is able to pull the trigger and discharge the silver bullet of leaving Pittodrie.

We must concede that it's not been a season awash with cash. That, of course, has been the SPL way for a number of years.

Will any of the impecunious and infirm die on the operating table? That can't be discounted, as much as we hope it can be avoided.

The shouts of "hell mend you, it's your own fault" emanate from another place.

But no club in the SPL is a financial basket case because of events in 2012.

Those events might yet quicken a monetary decline. Eventually they might be pinpointed as the tumbling pebbles that set off an avalanche of doom at some clubs.

It's likely, however, that any club that falls victim will already have been flirting with financial insanity.

Most clubs need to think smarter. There's a leadership deficit in Scottish football and it's evident at club level and national level.

There's nothing inherently wrong with accountants and marketing men running clubs or running the game.

There is a problem if we have incompetent accountants and incompetent marketing men running clubs and running the game.

And that's been a problem since Motherwell-born billionaires were still Motherwell-born billionaires.

What solace can be sought from the football?

Some games have been absolutely honking.

The winter break by any other name was ushered in with a derby howler at Tynecastle.

Funny thing though. As Hearts racked up 500 corners in a 15 minute spell, as the Hibs defence heroically repelled the maroon advance then stood heroically about looking glaikit in the six yard box waiting for the next barrage, I was involved in that game.

Purple of face, hoarse of throat involvement.

The Sky sponsored imperialism of English football and the Scottish media's "no such thing as a meaningless Old Firm game" mantra can hide an obvious truth: without an emotional attachment to one of the teams, televised games are often pish.

People tell me - I say it myself - that nobody outside Scotland is interested in the SPL.

People - often the very same people - tell me that a lot of televised games are dire adverts for the SPL.

Surely we can take comfort from that? Crap, aye. But in the SPL nobody can see you being crap.

And we've given our TV masters a few moments of excitement, the odd flash of skill, the unearthing of a player or two who might, with a fair wind, one day be talked up during Sky's coverage of Swansea v Wigan.

The patient still has a pulse.

I once overheard a chat in my local:

"Seen Joe lately?"

"Aye, awffy limp he's got now."

"Aye, right enough. Bad limp. He's a quick limper though, he can limp at quite a rate."

Armageddon is not catching up with us yet.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Barcelona v Celtic: An underdog's life

Having finally cleared one long standing Champions League hurdle with their away win in Moscow, Celtic must topple giants this evening.

Barcelona away is a fixture that makes most teams tremble. It looks a hopeless journey for our plucky Scottish champions, a side who have only just registered a maiden away win in this competition.

If Celtic will be prohibitive favourites in all their domestic matches this year they must accept the role of underdogs tonight.

As Gary Linton recalled in his post last night, it's not that long ago since Celtic were knocking Barcelona out of the UEFA Cup or taking a rare Champions League away point at the Nou Camp.

Not that long ago, but it feels like a footballing lifetime. In the intervening years Barcelona have come as close to any team of our generation to reinventing how football should be played.

Celtic, in common with most sides, have been stranded in their wake, stuck playing the football of mere mortals.

Abandon hope all ye who enter Catalonia?

Perhaps.

But, as Jose Mourinho was rather narkily explaining recently, Barcelona are not currently Spanish or European champions.

There has also been a vulnerability at times, a reliance on a mismatched defence made up of converted midfielders.

Unfortunately for Celtic they retain the ability to simply score more than the opposition no matter how many they concede.

Every silver lining has a cloud.

All this could be good news for the myopic Celtic fan or the neutral with an inkling for a shock.

Because a winning bet on Celtic this evening would be a lucrative affair.

A Barcelona win is priced at 1/12. A Celtic win is a whopping 20/1. The draw is 10/1.

If a football match is a two horse race then the bookies see this one as a sprint between Frankel and Robert Louis Stevenson's Modestine.

Gary's prediction of a 2-1 Barcelona win is 12/1. By contrast a 1-0 win for Celtic is out at 40/1, remarkably the same price as a 7-0 win for Barcelona.

Celtic's ambitions in this competition are likely to be realised away from their two clashes with Barcelona.

Anything tonight would be a huge result and a massive bonus. It looks highly unlikely.

Celtic will need to thrive without much sight of the ball, they'll also need to figure out a way of stopping the superlative stealing Lionel Messi without giving Barcelona's other stars room to thrive. It could be like trying to herd cats.

Better sides than this Celtic team have failed to do any of that successfully.

I've got to - and I suspect I'll not be a lone voice here - plump for a comfortable Barcelona win.

3-0 at 11/2 or 4-1 at 12/1.

David deserves more glory in this competition. But tonight should belong to Goliath.

All odds from Ladbrokes #gameon

Always remembering www.gambleaware.co.uk

Monday, October 22, 2012

Barcelona v Celtic: The magic men


Tomorrow night Celtic face the sternest test of the Champions League campaign with a trip to face Barcelona. Spanish football enthusiast Gary Linton, the Messi of Twitter @AlbaEspana, takes a look at a Barcelona side where attacking brilliance and a winning mentality continue to overcome a makeshift defence.

The best team to ever play the game, they play the most beautiful football in the world. They’re not human beings, they’re all robots.

All these things and many, many other things have been said about this Barcelona side. To be honest, it’s all true, well maybe not the robots part, but frankly I wouldn’t be surprised if it was!

They have Messi, they have Xavi and they have Iniesta. That’s not all, they have Sergio Busquets, Victor Valdes, Jordi Alba, David Villa the list could go on and on.

What Celtic must realise and what Celtic manager Neil Lennon already knows, is this side will hurt you from all angles, and they’ll hurt you bad.

It’s not a one man, two man or even a three man team, it’s an eleven man team, coaching staff, substitutes, tea ladies, kit men, pitch man and of course the most important part of this fantastic and special club, the fans.

Neil Lennon, the Celtic manager, was in the Celtic side that beat Barcelona in the 2003/04 UEFA Cup fourth round. Víctor Valdés, Carles Puyol and Xavi Hernández played in Celtic's 1-0 first-leg victory, and they all featured again in the goalless second leg. That is a result that will stay with Celtic fans that were there for those two legs, it will stay with Lennon and all other players who managed to triumph over this fantastic side.

Because since then it’s not looked so good for Celtic, it’s not looked so good for many clubs (we’ll get back to that a little later). Barcelona in recent years found a new man to manage them, they found Mr Pep Guardiola.

A man who won it all with Barcelona, a man who toppled all that came his and his team’s way, he may or may not have ‘built’ this team, but he certainly put his stamp on it, made them play his way and made them win his way. The way that’s got them mentioned by almost every single football fan as the greatest ever side to play the game.

He’s now left, he’s no longer at Barcelona but all the players still are. Their new boss is Pep’s second hand man, Tito Vilanova. With Tito in charge they’re still the same old winning Barcelona. Tito has been in charge of Barcelona for 13 matches, in those 13 matches he’s won 11, drawn one and been defeated once.

Yes, back to the part where I mentioned it’s not looked so good for Celtic against Barcelona since that 2003/04 UEFA Cup win.

In 2004/2005 Henrik Larsson struck against his old club with Deco and Ludovic Giuly also scoring when Barcelona won 3-1 at Celtic in the UEFA Champions League group stage. Lennon appeared along with Valdés, Puyol and Xavi and all four were present in the Camp Nou return, together with Andrés Iniesta, a 60th-minute substitute. It finished 1-1 after John Hartson cancelled out Samuel Eto'o's strike.

A couple of seasons went by and Barcelona and Celtic met again, this time in the 2007/08 round of 16. It was going well for the Scottish side; they went 1-0 up through Vennegoor of Hesselink in the 16th minute, and then found themselves level moments later when Messi scored, they then went back in front with a goal from Barry Robson. It wasn’t enough and eventually goals from Henry and a second from Messi saw Barcelona win the first leg, the second leg was all to play for, but Barcelona did what Barcelona do, they won. They won the return leg 1-0 courtesy of a Xavi goal for a 4-4 aggregate victory.

Now let’s get back to Tito Vilanova and today’s Barcelona. As I said  they are "winners" with just a single defeat so far for Tito at the hands of Real Madrid in the super cup second leg. However, since that defeat they’re unbeaten in their last eight games, with seven wins and a single draw, again against Real Madrid, this time in the league.

Messi’s on form, 27 goals for club and country in his last 16 appearances, Xavi’s back, Iniesta’s back and so is David Villa. The likelihood, looking at past meetings and recent results, is a Barcelona victory.

But wait: there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Barcelona do have "some" problems. Pique doesn’t look likely to feature in the game, Puyol is out injured, Abidal is still sidelined as he’s been for the whole season and of course Dani Alves is still out injured.

So they have to go with a 'make shift' back line. Young Montoya has recently filled in at right back; they've got to go with the centre back pairing of one former midfielder turned defender in Javier Mascherano and a midfielder playing as defender who still likes to act at times as a midfielder in Alex Song. That’s unless Tito goes with Adriano (a left back or left midfielder) at centre back but even then you’d still have a very 'unreliable' and not 'up to scratch' defence.

They are also missing a pivotal part of the 'defence' in defensive midfielder Sergio Busquets who is suspended following his red card on match day two.

Now I know, I know what you’re thinking, Barcelona are Barcelona and whoever plays will fill in just fine. You may be right.

But I know one thing for sure; I’d rather go up against a back line like that instead of a back line featuring Pique, Puyol and Alves.

Don’t believe me? Just ask Sevilla who put two past them a couple of weeks back, or even Spartak Moscow who did the same. If you don’t believe either of them just ask Deportivo La Coruna who, just this weekend, put four past them, that’s right four.

They did in the end lose the game 5-4 but, come on, I said 'some light' at the end of the tunnel.

Prediction: Barcelona 2-1

Possible starting XI: Valdes - Alba, Mascherano, Song, Montoya - Iniesta, Xavi, and Cesc Fabregas - Tello, Messi, Pedro.

Match facts: Celtic


  • The 3-2 win at FC Spartak Moscow was Celtic's first in 21 attempts away from home in the UEFA Champions League. They had lost 19 of the previous 20.
  • Fraser Forster and Scott Brown have played all 540 minutes of Celtic's campaign, qualifying included.
  • Ten of the side that started on match day one were making their group stage debuts, with Brown the sole exception.
  • Victor Wanyama's next yellow card will incur a ban.

Match facts: Barcelona 


  • Barcelona have won 99 games in the UEFA Champions League, group stage to final, and scored 346 goals.
  • Lionel Messi has been UEFA Champions League top scorer for an unprecedented four successive campaigns.
  • Xavi Hernández has completed 236 of his 266 passes so far, both the highest in the competition. Sergio Busquets and Javier Mascherano are second and third respectively.
  • Barcelona have completed 1,400 of their 1,627 passes; both competition highs.
Read Gary's blog at Alba España


Friday, September 28, 2012

SPL: The Joy of Six

A Saturday Superstore tomorrow. With Neil Doncaster as Mike Read and a half time interview with Craig Brown filling in for a wacky live link with Cheggers.

A splendid SPL smorgasbord seeing out September. Alarming alliteration aside, we can sit back and enjoy six games in the top flight.

Aberdeen v Hibs


The good lord of scheduling giveth and he taketh away. Thus the joy of a Saturday game is diminished by a noon kick off.

Hibs are looking to make it seven games undefeated in the SPL, Aberdeen are looking to make it nine undefeated in all competitions.

Last week Hibs threw away a two goal lead, Aberdeen salvaged a point after being two goals behind.

They served up some fetid feasts of boredom last season but current form suggests this might be a darn good match up.

When they weren't being hauled back last week Hibs looked confident, aggressive, capable of playing a bit of football.

Far from the finished article and still lacking any real depth to the squad. But Pat Fenlon deserves praise for how his work in progress is, eh, progressing.

Fools and bairns shouldn't see unfinished jobs? A football manager doesn't have that luxury. Fenlon must work under the glare of a support still haunted by recent experiences.

He's making a decent fist of it. And that's more than his predecessor managed.

Aberdeen's start to the season - efficiently low key but lacking goals - was vintage Craig Brown but belied a summer spent assembling what looks to be a half decent squad.

A point salvaged last week and a late win against Dunfermline on Wednesday might just give them the burst of urgency they need.

This could be tight. Certainly a Hibs win at 23/10 or the draw at the same odds look better prices than an Aberdeen win at 6/5.

Regular readers will know I don't like publicly declaring Hibs predictions on the blog.

But at more than 2/1 I will be backing them.

Dundee v St Johnstone


All that time without a win, a bit of a Moaning Minnie harrumph when they lost to Hibs at Easter Road.

What a difference a month makes.

September has delivered seven SPL points from nine and a league cup win for St Johnstone.

It started equally well for Dundee but a win at Tynecastle has been followed by two defeats. Bottom of the league, four points from seven games.

Still early but it's form that makes you think of a long struggle ahead.

If they want to haul themselves out of their current fug then winning home games against St Johnstone would be the sensible way to start.

The home win is out at 23/10 though. So is the draw. St Johnstone are 6/5 to make it ten points out of 12. I suspect they'll do just that.

Hearts v Kilmarnock


Up and doon.

That's pretty much the season so far for both Hearts and Kilmarnock.

For a number of clubs actually. This could be an excitingly unpredictable season. It could also be a turgid affair with eight or nine clubs trapped together in a tedious waltz of shared mediocrity.

Depending on how full or empty your glass is.

Hearts vaulted past Dundee United last week to record their first SPL win since the opening day.

Kilmarnock eased past St Mirren to record their second SPL win of the season.

Going into this game both have played seven, won two and amassed nine points with a goal difference of plus two.

Anything John McGlynn can do, Kenny Shiels can do pretty much the same.

Which will make this a tight one today?

Hearts don't look to offer much value at 10/11, Kilmarnock might be a tad generous at 3/1.

A draw for me though. 12/5.

Inverness v Dundee United


Inverness looked in danger of being overrun as Hibs went two ahead last Saturday.

There, laid bare, were their limitations.

From adversity, strength. With Richie Foran leading the line they hauled themselves back into it with a determination and resilience which makes you think they can again be more than the sum of their parts.

If anyone stumbles across the Dundee United side that were apparently best placed to challenge for the title could they please post it back to a Mr P Houston at Tannadice.

After winning their first two game 3-0, United are now four without a win and suffered a 3-0 defeat of their own at home to Hearts last week.

Injuries haven't helped of course. But there seems to be nobody ready to take responsibility when key players are missing.

It will be a worry for Peter Houston that they've also shipped three goals in losing to Kilmarnock and Hearts.

Not scoring and not always defending very well. 'Tis a bad combination.

I'm not sure if Inverness, still without a league win, will be able to capitalise though. They're certainly thrawn but I'm unconvinced by their ability to take the initiative.

So Inverness at 2/1? Don't fancy it. Dundee United at 13/10? Not sure.

The draw at 9/4. Go on then.

Motherwell v Celtic


In the last week Motherwell have lost a two goal lead against an Aberdeen side that couldn't score and been dispatched from the league cup by a Third Division side.

That's pish, frankly.

The manner of their defeat to Rangers - not just the lack of marking at the goals, but the stumbling, pedestrian ineptitude of much of their play - should be a cause for concern.

But they're top of the league so everything is rosy? Hmmm. They are both bad results.

I'd be astonished if Celtic don't win this game.

The most interesting thing about it is the kick off time: The first Saturday 3pm kick off for a Celtic away game in the SPL since October 2005 when Livingston were on the wrong end of a 5-0 drubbing.

A drubbing inspired by "youngsters Stephen McManus and Shaun Maloney."

Gary Hooper looks in the mood. The Motherwell defence looks generous. The Celtic win is likely but it's a low value 8/13.

St Mirren v Ross County


Kenny Shiels was ebullient in his praise of St Mirren last week. But his Kilmarnock side had just won the game.

Defeat too for Ross County, that lengthy unbeaten league run finally coming to an end against a rejuvenated St Johnstone.

So something for both teams to bounce back from tomorrow.

It took St Mirren until injury time to slide past Hamilton in the league cup on Tuesday.

That will please Derek Adams. County are nothing if not obstinate and he might well fancy their chances of rendering St Mirren pretty but ineffective - which is the praise Shiels faintly damned them with last week.

St Mirren go into this one as favourites at evens. The County win is 11/5.

I'd be more tempted by the draw at the same price.

Coupon crazy


OK, so where are we?

The tightness of many matches and the inconsistency of many sides is making calling SPL matches something of a challenge so far this season.

Tomorrow:

Hibs to win
St Johnstone to win
Hearts and Kilmarnock to draw
Inverness and Dundee United to draw
Celtic to win
St Mirren and Ross County to draw

An accumulator on that little lot comes in at 414.69/1. A daft bet. But this might just be a daft season.

All odds from Ladbrokes

Always remembering www.gambleaware.co.uk

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Saturday, September 22, 2012

SPL: Celtic v Dundee

Scottish football can be stultifying, it's been over a decade now since the SPL champions faced two promoted sides over the course of their title defence.

Celtic, already a part of Ross County's elongated unbeaten league run, welcome Dundee today.

A lot of people backed Dundee to return immediately from whence they came.

They'd finished a distant second in the First Division and then spent a strange summer as victims of the rancorous paralysis that stupefied the game.

Were Rangers in or out? Rangers were out. Were Dunfermline back in or were Dundee promoted? Dundee were up.

By the time we'd worked out what was happening it seemed like Dundee were to be rewarded with an SPL spot but punished by not having time to adequately prepare.

The BBC website even lists their opening day First Division fixture as being "postponed."

And there they sit, offering succour to the "told you so-ers," at the foot of the table.

An opening day draw at Kilmarnock and a 1-0 win at Hearts are the only points gained in six games.

Four points from three away games - they were well beaten in the derby at Tannadice - isn't a bad return.

But three defeats at home will worry Barry Smith. Against Ross County and Motherwell they lost goals in the last twenty minutes of games that cost them the match.

Obviously it's far too early to discern any sort pattern. And if Dundee's start has been stuttery, they are far from alone.

Nine clubs are within five points of them in a league that is steadfastly refusing to be taken by the scruff of the neck.

Celtic find themselves among that batch after five league games when they've often looked bothered, sometimes bewildered but very rarely bewitched.

Five league games have delivered just eight points. That's far less than is expected of Celtic in seasons when they're predicted to be in a title fight, let alone a season touted as their great SPL walkover.

Maybe the players were expecting it to work out like that and are consequently lacking the focus they need.

There are injuries, of course, but also a lack of resolve and confidence in some of those who are fit.

A 0-0 draw with Benfica on in the Champions League on Wednesday featured an improved performance but hardly an inspiring one, particularly in a group where snaffling wins at home looks a minimum requirement.

All of which might mean that Dundee are less scared of a trip to Celtic Park than SPL new boys often are.

Manager Barry Smith will talk of keeping it tight at the back and starting well - although Hibs at Celtic Park and St Johnstone at home last week have shown that neither is a necessity to get some sort of result against the champions so far this season.

While one would expect Celtic to score - they've found the net in every SPL game so far - their defence is not without a certain largesse.

In five league games only Aberdeen have failed to score against them and Inverness, Hibs and St Johnstone have helped themselves to two apiece in the last three games.

The willing have found that there's goals for the taking. Which might set the Celtic Park stage for Colin Nish.

He broke his nose scoring his first Dundee goal last week but should play today. It was worth it though as it took him to joint eighth in the all-time SPL scoring charts. It will probably make him better looking into the bargain.

He's now on 63 goals, level with Chris Sutton and Stevie Crawford. Quietly effective.

I've liked Nish ever since I saw him in a corner shop after one of his less quietly - or indeed, noisily - effective performances for Hibs.

I still had my scarf on. He, rather touchingly, was still wearing his club tracksuit and looked just as miserable as me.

Our eyes met briefly, we both decided nothing needed said and so spent what seemed like an eternity staring at the floor as the girls at the front of the queue bought enough Lambrini to sink a gaggle of geese. Hibs fans don't always have more fun.

He's at 10/1 to score first tomorrow. Or, for the chicken-hearted, 10/3 to score anytime.

It could be that Celtic will be suffering what we're duty bound to call a Champions League hangover tomorrow.

Realistically though I expect them to start winning games like this. And I expect them to start winning them tomorrow.

Dundee's best hope: a 1-1 draw that you can back at 14/1.

Best hope? I think so. This looks the sort of game where Celtic can stop stuttering.

Neil Lennon has talked about freshening the team up to combat that European "hangover."

So Celtic to win 2-0 with Tony Watt as first scorer at 20/1. Or, if you prefer, 3-0 at the same price.

Mind you, if you fancy a crate of Lambrini, why not go crazy on a 3-1 Celtic win with Colin Nish as first scorer. 125/1.

All odds from Ladbrokes

Always remembering www.gambleaware.co.uk

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Champions League: Celtic v Benfica

A foreign bloke in branded leisurewear having a smoke outside Glasgow's Radisson can only mean one thing.

There's a football team in town and one of the coaches is plotting the downfall of some of our brave boys while looking as effortlessly cool as it's possible to look while indulging in a pastime that runs the very real risk of setting his Adidas training gear alight.

The studied nonchalance on Argyle Street has belonged to Benfica this week as the Champions League group stages return to Celtic Park.

Celtic revel in nights like this: 18 home games in the group stages of this competition have seen them claim 13 wins and suffer just one defeat.

If their Champions League campaigns haven't always brought sustained success, achieving parity with the great and the good of the European game has rarely been a problem at home.

But Neil Lennon is facing something of a conundrum before this evening's match.

Celtic predicted canter in the one horse SPL has started groggily. A meek defeat to St Johnstone on Saturday confirmed the worst start to a league season for over a decade.

Why?

Lennon suggested - and it was a chagrined suggestion - that thoughts of this Benfica clash might have played a part in Saturday's defeat.

Others have suggested that the players might be taking time to adjust to a league shorn of their rivals.

I might also question the wisdom of that Philadelphia friendly with Real Madrid after the league had started and when both the domestic season and the squad were already facing disruption for the last round of international fixtures.

More prosaically there have been injuries and what appears to be a collective loss of form among a few key players.

The manager will expect his squad to rise above that in the SPL but he'll also be concerned how this lacklustre start will translate into European performances.

In the parlance of such things he'll be looking for a reaction tonight. Without it Celtic could be in for a long evening.

The bookies would seem to concur. Celtic are 13/5 to win with Ladbrokes while Benfica are 11/10.

Domestic form, the depth of the two squads and Celtic's four years absence from this stage would certainly explain those odds. But they do seem to disregard the Celtic Park factor, the home advantage that so defines Celtic's European adventures.


The draw is quoted at 9/4 although the generosity of Celtic's defence so far this season would scare me off 0-0 at 6/1.

1-1 at 7/1 might well look the better bet.

I'm also happy to be influenced by the Craig Levein Equation: Craig Levein + Craig Levein questioning Player X's value to the Scotland squad = Player X doing something impressive.

In this case Kris Commons (Scotland's ninth best midfielder. Or is tenth best?) scoring first in a 1-1 draw comes in at 40/1.

Have a punt on that.

By the end of the night you might be just be singing Levein's praises.

All odds from Ladbrokes

Always remembering www.gambleaware.co.uk

Saturday, September 01, 2012

SPL: Celtic v Hibs


After they both enjoyed SPL wins last Saturday the week rather diverged for Celtic and Hibs.

Celtic progressed to the Champions League group stage, that promised land where the streets are paved with gold and the couches upholstered with £50 notes.

24 hours earlier Hibs were dumped out of the League Cup by Queen of the South in a display that seems to have flitted between pathetic and miserable.

Pat Fenlon said he was "disgusted" with the performance and well he might have been. He should also have been mildly nauseated by his own decision to rejig the team with a series of changes that made Hibs weakest in the very areas where Queen of the South were strongest.

After taking seven points from three games - Fenlon's best SPL sequence - it was an unfortunate return to the amateurism that has pockmarked Hibs' recent travails.

The result wasn't the end of the world. But it was hugely unfortunate.

Fenlon remains very much on trial with a lot of supporters. If he wants to win them over he can't afford to take a couple of steps back just when he seems to be moving forward.

Can't afford to lose too many players out of his starting eleven either.

He looked in the cupboard on Tuesday night and - as most of us would have guessed - the cupboard was bare.

No such worries for Neil Lennon who has taken Celtic back to the group stages of the Champions League, returning the glamour of Barcelona to Celtic Park along with all that thunder.

The SPL is warmed by the reflected glory of Celtic's qualification even as it increases the inequality between the haves and the have nots.

For now Hibs need to try and cope with the inequality on the pitch.

60 points separated the two teams last year and a goalless draw in Glasgow couldn't hide how woefully Hibs fared against the teams at the top end of the table.

In 18 league clashes with top six teams Hibs managed just six points, that draw at Celtic joined by draws with Motherwell and Dundee United and a home win against St Johnstone.

Fenlon himself was only in charge for the 1-1 draw with Motherwell.

It's a record that has to be improved. The last three games have indicated progress - a step in the right direction but not a destination.

Certainly Fenlon will feel that he could have done without facing a buoyant Celtic in Glasgow today.

Odds of 12/1 on a away win suggest there's a mountain to climb.

Trying for a repeat of last year's 0-0 would be a risky strategy although with Ben Williams in goal and James McPake at the heart of defence Hibs look capable of being more organised this season.

Fenlon's favoured midfield four - not enhanced by any deadline day deals - might lack creativity but look reasonably well configured to help out a rearguard action while Leigh Griffiths and Eoin Doyle would attempt to take the pressure off with constant movement up front.

That could be the theory anyway. So 14/1 on a no scoring draw might tempt me.

If I had any faith that Hibs will be able to keep a clean sheet.

I don't.

Which would lead me to the conclusion that Celtic will probably prevail.


A 3-1 Celtic win at 10/1 looks enticing.

The head can't rule when Hibs are involved though.

2-1 Hibs with Griffiths getting the first goal. 125/1.

If dreams can come true you might as well make a few quid off the back of them.

All odds from Ladbrokes

www.gambleaware.co.uk

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Europa League: Hearts v Liverpool

"When are games versus Scottish teams ever as easy as they should be?"

So asked one Liverpool fan after his team were drawn against Hearts in their Europa League play off.

The answer, a bittersweet truth to be sure, is that too many clubs from too many countries have found games against Scottish teams clubs to be all too easy in recent years.

Liverpool themselves have endured a few hard battles but five times out of six they've prevailed in the cross-border clashes that have punctuated their six decades of European participation.

The first test allowed two men on the road to greatness to meet head on in the Cup Winner's Cup.

Celtic v Liverpool.

Jock Stein v Bill Shankly.

It was Shankly who triumphed in 1966, a 2-0 win at Anfield securing a 2-1 win on aggregate.

The 1970-71 Fairs Cup saw Liverpool make their first competitive trip to Edinburgh with a 1-0 win over Hibs.

"Hibs are one down and are playing in front of the Kop. Need I say more?" asked Shankly.

Apparently not. A 2-0 win at Anfield completed the job.

Hibs had another crack in the 1975/76 UEFA Cup. This time a Joe Harper goal gave them a home win before John Toshack dominated the return leg at Anfield.

With Kevin Keegan providing the service, Toshack's hat-trick secured a 3-1 on the night.

By 1980 Liverpool were a major force in European football, Aberdeen the coming force in Scottish football.

In the second round of Alex Ferguson's first European Cup campaign Aberdeen lost only 1-0 at Pittodrie but were undone at Anfield by the eventual winners.

Ferguson said of that defeat:

"The 4-0 beating we suffered in the second was far too emphatic to to allow us to plead mitigating circumstances on the basis of the players missing because of injury. All we could was try to ensure that we learned from painful exposure to the proven masters of the techniques and discipline required in European competitions."

By 1997 Celtic and Liverpool didn't quite offer the same promise as they had when Stein and Shankly were building dynasties and taking the fight to the world.

They could still put on a show though. A goalless draw at Anfield was followed by a Michael Owen goal early in the second leg.

Celtic fought back. A Simon Donnelly penalty had them 2-1 up with 15 minutes to go before Steve McManaman settled matters with a late equaliser to seal a win on away goals.

This time Celtic didn't have quite as long to wait for revenge. The first leg of the 2002-03 UEFA Cup quarter final finished 1-1 in Glasgow.

Advantage Liverpool. But this was a determined - and very good - Celtic team.

A clean sheet and goals for Alan Thompson and John Hartson sent Celtic closer to the final and, after 37 years of sporadic attempts, finally gave a Scottish club a win over Liverpool.

As Liverpool made occasional visits across north, Hearts had to bide their time for a Scotland v England clash.

Not until last year - 53 years and 72 games since their European debut - did they face English opposition.

A long wait that ended rather abruptly.

A 5-0 win for Tottenham at Tynecastle in the first leg, a display of utter dominance.

The 0-0 draw in the White Hart Lane was creditable but irrelevant.

It was Hearts misfortune - there but for someone's grace go any number of clubs - that it was on their patch that the disparity between the SPL and the EPL would be most starkly illustrated.

Their misfortune too that the Liverpool game - lucrative as it will be - should follow so hot on the heels of their first stab at establishing cross-border relations.

The temptation is to look at what happened last year and allow that to inform our predictions for what will happen tonight.

Thus the challenge that Hearts are being set is not to make history but to stop history repeating itself. Don't reach for the stars, reach for the damage limitation manual.

Maybe that's symptomatic of Scottish football's drained confidence or maybe it's an example of brutally honest realism.

Either way I don't think it helps manager John McGlynn's cause.

Spurs were the better team by some distance last year but the constant pre-game reminders that they were up against a big side, a better side, can't have helped Hearts.

When the game started and Hearts froze the outcome was not only predictable, it could have been a lot worse.

With a younger team, with last year so fresh in the memory, there is a risk we'll see the same thing happen again.

Liverpool have travelled without Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez, Martin Skrtel and Glen Johnson.

Big names missing as part of a European rotation policy. Mind you, those big names played last weekend in the 3-0 defeat to West Brom.

For their part Hearts might start with debutant goalkeeper Peter Enckleman.

Unlikely heroes can emerge on nights such as these.

Hearts will need as many of them as they can get.

How will it go?

Ladbrokes tell me it doesn't look good. Odds of 11/2 on a Hearts win and 8/15 on a Liverpool win tell their own story.

4-0 Liverpool is 28/1, a repeat of Spurs' 5-0 win is 66/1. Andy Carroll is 25/1 to score a hat-trick.

I suspect Hearts will do well to score (John Sutton is 9/4 to score anytime) though so their best hope might well to a 0-0 draw, keeping the tie alive for the second leg.

You'll get 10/1 for that.

It's never nice to be reminded how well off your neighbours are. And we're forever reminded of the riches that flow into English football.

The reality is that Liverpool's second string would stand out in the SPL.

With nothing to lose Tynecastle will be in full voice. It could be a long night for Hearts.

What a boost it would be for Scottish football if it could also be a famous night for them.

(Remember folks, gambleaware.co.uk)

Monday, August 06, 2012

SPL: One horse, week one

The SPL is back. Games have been played, points have been won. Hibs fans have been depressed all over again.

Robbie Devine takes a look at the weekend:


Saturday August 4 2012 saw the start of a new experiment in world football, the kick off for a top tier championship in which the race for the runner-up spot is the main aim for the majority of sides rather than the mounting of a championship challenge.

Surely there cannot be another league where a team is declared definite champions before a ball is kicked by managers, players, pundits and fans alike.

Celtic will surely stroll to a second successive title as, with no Rangers on the scene, no club will be in a position to launch a proper challenge.

It is a sad indictment of the game in Scotland that the Old Firm will always be champions, indeed Aberdeen were the last club outside Glasgow to become top dogs way back in the dim and distant days of 1985.

The Dons were the first team to take on the prospective champions as Celtic Park was filled fans witnessing the spectacle of legendary former Celtic assistant manager Sean Fallon unfurling the League flag before the match started.

Now there is a prevalent sense of optimism amongst SPL supporters that this will be a good season as the Rangers saga has now abated but without wanting to put a damp squib on top of that positivity I feel I simply must embrace my Victor Meldrew and admit that I do not share that view, especially on the viewing of the game at Celtic Park.

For those of you who did not have the misfortune to witness it you must have enjoyed a better weekend than I.

It was a poor, poor spectacle.

The home side failed to break down a resolute Dons defence until the 79th minute when Kris Commons' low shot somehow managed to hit the back of the net evading the clutches of Aberdeen keeper Jamie Langfield whose woeful attempt to stop it leads us back to the days when the fumblings of Scottish goalkeepers were considered a long running joke amongst the English press.

Langfield’s nickname is ‘clangers’ so his latest blunder should not have surprised anyone.

What may surprise people though was Neil Lennon’s assertion that one of the main reasons for Celtic’s lethargic showing was because his players were ‘leggy’ following their midweek match against HJK Helsinki.

Surely, after a summer of recharging their collective batteries, the last thing any professional footballer should feel is ‘leggy’ on the opening day of the season.

That aside it is abundantly obvious that Lennon will have to freshen up his squad as there was a real lack of flair on show from his troops whilst Craig Brown’s main concern will be what do with Langfield.

Elsewhere St Mirren Park was the place to go for excitement as the 4104 spectators were treated to an old fashioned rip snorter of a match in which the Buddies rescued a point in injury time against Inverness Caley Thistle but did lose new signing Lewis Guy, who had opened the scoring, to a red card.

There was also a good atmosphere generated at Tynecastle as goals from Sutton and Templeton secured the three points for Hearts with St Johnstone manager Steve Lomas later bemoaning the ordering off of new signing Gregory Tade.

The First Division flag was raised at the newly named New Energy Stadium, Dingwall as last season’s First Division champions Ross County held Motherwell to a 0-0 draw with the same result signalling the return to top flight football for Dundee who took a large travelling support down to Kilmarnock.

And Sunday saw the final match of the opening SPL campaign taking place at a sun drenched Tannadice where Dundee United shook off the hangover of losing a last minute equiliser in their Europa League tie against big spending Dinamo Moscow to humble hapless Hibernian 3-0.

On this showing United will indeed, along with Hearts, be the most serious challengers for that much coveted second spot while the odds on Hibs making a managerial change yet again before Christmas have shortened considerably.

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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Scottish Cup: Talking about waiting

Like children before Christmas we wait with increasing excitement for the all-Edinburgh Scottish Cup final.

For those of us with an emotional attachment, of course, this Santa delivers either the greatest gift of all or a ginormous slap in the face.

High stakes.

Given I can think of little else it was a pleasure to join The SPL Podcast for a cup final preview show.

We also took a look at the SPL season that was with Celtic flying high and Dunfermline plumbing the depths.

Thanks to Robert (@RMcCracken91), Paul (@steakheed) and Simon (@SFurnivall) for the hospitable welcome.

Listen here or subscribe on iTunes.

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Sunday, April 29, 2012

SPL: Finding meaning, finding belief

Quite a Sunday ahead.

Celtic hosting Rangers and Hibs continuing their long, frustrating struggle to shake off relegation rivals Dunfermline against St Mirren. Two games that might normally have the Betfair football betting experts scratching their heads.

Today's match at Celtic Park is both essentially meaningless and yet crammed full of meaning.

The league title is already Celtic's. Rangers will likely claim a second place that will be rendered redundant by their current suspension from European competition.

One of these dull, go-through-the-motions, end-of season affairs then?

Perhaps not.

Some are trying to label this a bookend game: the final act in a dramatic rivalry that began on 28 May 1888.

That's unlikely. Rangers will still be around next season although it's impossible at the moment to predict where or in what form.

Yet even if the sense of closure is somewhat false there's reason for players and fans to view this as a big game.

Celtic, revelling in the role of conquerors, have a chance to drive home the feeling of triumphalism in front of a home crowd that will, surely, be high on the madness that swirls round their oldest rivals.

But what a boost a strong showing here would be for Rangers and their supporters.

Battling on a hundred fronts, swiping like punch drunk pugilists at enemies real and imagined, moving no closer to the resolution they crave.

Duff & Phelps, Rangers' administrators, have presided over a process that has delivered only delays and conditional bids, a process that has seen them look ever more like the boys who cried wolf, rescue packages still tantalisingly out of reach.

Today's match offers a 90 minute distillation of that drama, a game without tangible rewards but packed with enough meaning to ensure fans on both sides care more than ever.

How will it pan out?

I find predicting these things increasingly unpredictable, it's a game that can inspire some and leave others looking bereft.

The bookies though, and heaven knows my expertise is limited, would seem to be offering unusual generosity in their verdict on Rangers.

The club is, unavoidably, in a crisis of gargantuan proportions but recent form has seen the players show an admirable fortitude in the face of such ructions. We need look no further than the last Old Firm game to illustrate that an unknown future hasn't fulling snuffed out the danger that lurks in this team.

Fence sitting, as ever, suggests erring on the side of a draw but I'd still be surprised if Celtic don't win this one.

This, however, has been a season of surprises.

As the dust settles on the Old Firm game our attention can turn once again to the relegation travails of Hibs and Dunfermline.

Hibs fans are doing a fair impression of Michael Corleone at the moment. Just when they think they are out of the mire, Dunfermline pull them back in.

So it proved yesterday. A 3-0 win over Aberdeen was enough to give the Fifers their first home victory of the season, cut to three points the lead Hibs enjoyed and even make something a dent in the goal difference imbalance.

If Dunfermline wanted to switch the pressure back on to their fellow strugglers then yesterday was mission accomplished.

Hibs and pressure. What does manager Pat Fenlon see when he looks around the side that he's cobbled together with less than convincing results?

A team that can turn up Paisley today and deliver the riposte needed to halt any Dunfermline revival before it has properly begun?

Or a team that, like so many before them, St Mirren will see as easy touches, a welcome home three points to inject some fun into the dying embers of the season?

Hibs fans will hope he sees some resolve, sees the realisation dawning that his team have it in their gift to save themselves.

But those fans have been looking for the right answers to those questions all season long. Too often they've been disappointed.

Hope rather than expectation has guided emotion in Leith this season.

That continues today.

Another commanding performance from James McPake in defence, some incision from Garry O'Connor and Leigh Griffiths, something more cohesive from a misfiring midfield.

Deliver that and three points can be within reach today.

Fail - and they've failed a lot this year - and St Mirren have quality enough to prolong the suffering.

The stakes are high.

Time for the Hibs players to take a gamble and believe in themselves.

Even that might not be enough.

But they have to hope that it will let them crawl over the finish line.

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