Hibs v Hearts: Here we go again

Jason Cummings is "buzzing". Prince Buaben is ready to face the "chaser." And Fraser Aird would rather be watching Coronation Street.

Bad news for Fraser. The omnibus of goings on in Weatherfield will finish on ITV2+1 a full ten minutes before kick off at Easter Road. Maybe there's a soap opera closer to home to distract him.

The second Edinburgh derby of this Championship season is upon is.

The form book is supposed to crash out of the window. But the bookies still have Hearts as favourites.

I don't understand how the bookmakers calculate such things. But I'd reckon the 14 point lead Hearts have over Hibs has something to do with it.

And their 10 game unbeaten run. And three wins from the last three derbies.

Hibs themselves are four games undefeated since their 3-1 win at Ibrox. But last week's 4-0 win at Livingston followed two home draws with Raith Rovers and Dumbarton.

Nine wins from ten games is good going. Four wins from ten games isn't so much.

And Hibs have made a stuttering start to the season, handicapped by a disrupted summer.

History doesn't much help either.

This week Pat Stanton told the BBC:

"Too often, Hearts just seem to brush Hibs aside, there's no real resistance. It's almost been inevitable that Hearts would beat us, and Hibs have accepted it."

And on his blog David Farrell wrote:

"I never felt as a team we were ever as fired up as Hearts were. They were snarling and scratching at you from the tunnel onto the pitch. They were pressing all over us, people like Sandison, Black, Kidd, Mackay, Levein and Robertson galvanising and pushing each other. Make no mistake, they were angrier than us. They were ready for a derby, ready for a scrap."

That sums up the historical drift of these games. Recent history too: Hibs have won just 10 of the last 44.

It's true that this season's opening derby at Tynecastle might have been a very different game if Liam Craig had scored his first half penalty.

He didn't. And Hearts, as so often before, took advantage.

So, having left myself thoroughly depressed, what do I see happening at Easter Road today?

I'll be looking to see that form book hurled through a window. I'll be looking to see Hibs play with a pace and incisiveness that hasn't always been evident at Easter Road this season. Too often at home Hibs have done right the things but at such a pedestrian speed that they've been rendered blunt.

I'll be looking to Hibs give their fans something to cheer about.

And, at the end of 90 minutes, I'd be happy to see a draw.

SPL: Hibs v Hearts

Bliss it was that dawn to be alive.

19th May 2012.

They were happy coaches that travelled from Leith to the Scottish Cup final that day in May, fuelled by hope and expectation. Songs filled the air. This was Hibs' time.

They delivered fans not to a green and pleasant land but a dystopian nightmare.

From Wordsworth to Orwell, the Scottish Cup final as imagined by a hungover Danny Boyle with Pa Kujabi and Pat Fenlon auditioning to play Mr Bean.

That was then. This is now.

Even a club as unresponsive as Hibs realised something had to change.

A number of players who trudged off the pitch at Hampden were quickly shipped out.

A new team would be built, a team with "bottle," ready to make a fresh start. Ready to restore the reputation of a club that had invented new ways to fail in the past couple of season.

Fast forward to the competitive debut of this "new" Hibs.

A 3-0 defeat to Dundee United in which Hibs were variously clueless in defence, weak in midfield and toothless in attack.

You'll have had your summer of change.

And now another test.

Hearts at Easter Road. Just the second game of the season. Hearts fresh from a comfortable 2-0 win over St Johnstone, Hearts fans set on another party to mark that Scottish Cup win, this one in their neighbour's backyard.

Things don't get much easier for Hibs. But that's what happens when a club gets so much wrong.

There are those on the board at Easter Road who like to extol the virtues of their budget driven management of the club while looking haughtily across the city.

It's not that simple.

Hibs youth policy has been stuttery since the last of the impressive - and profitable - "golden generation" left.

Last weekend Hearts trumped them for the number of youth graduates in the squad and in the starting line up.

And Hibs, whose miserliness some like to present as a masterful, are brassic.

Maybe not as skint as some clubs but too many seasons of paying off managers, making bad signings whose contracts need to be bought out and not producing any saleable assets has taken its toll.

They have a fine stadium. But no money. Some clubs buy success, Hibs wouldn't do that so ended up spending a fortune on failure. That makes rebuilding a team very hard.

It's a rum do indeed in Leith.

All of which is ground I've covered before and will again. But it's important to give Sunday's game context.

The first derby of the season - and it's an early season clash - always had to be targetted as a big step on the road to recovery.

The cup final is gone, history can't be changed, the jokes and jubiliation in Gorgie will never end.

But a sound performance against Hearts - a much, much overdue win in this fixture - would be evidence of progress, a measure of the rebuilding job.

Yet Hibs appear to be entering the game as the SPL's Benidorm hotel.

They might one day be fine. But right now the work has stalled, the owner has stopped paying the builder, the windows haven't been fitted and the swimming pool isn't tiled.

Hearts have had changes themselves. John McGlynn has been given the tricky job of taking over from the cup winning Paulo Sergio and remoulding the team with a focus on youth.

But the players were already at the club, ready to take the step up, immersed in the ethos of the club. An ethos that very much includes winning derby games.

What hope for Hibs?

Last week's showing could have been a bad day at the office, United had already played a European tie and their early goal might just have caught Hibs off guard.

The arrival of Gary Deegan might bolster that powder puff midfield.

Fenlon's promise of a new look and a new attitude might have blossomed on the lush green grass of that expensive training centre this week.

A young Hearts side might fall victim to inconsistency, their lack of striking options might become a problem.

But you'd struggle to find a Hibs fan to bet on any of that.

Losing the first two games of the season needn't be disastrous but losing this game would be a problem for Hibs.

In the battle for hearts and minds losing another battle to Hearts will make up more minds about the direction the club is taking.

Hibs v Hearts: the odds

Ladbrokes offer 11/5 for a Hibs win, 5/4 for a Hearts win and 9/4 for the draw.

The optimistic Hibs fan might be interested to see that 2-1 win with Leigh Griffiths as first scorer comes in at 40/1.

James McPake - scorer of the cup final consolation goal - is a 12/1 anytime scorer.

And perhaps some of those Hearts fans for whom confidence is not a problem will fancy a John Sutton hat trick at 33/1.

SPL: Capital gains

Moan out of the way first: I'm not sure Scottish football is playing to those strengths it still has by scheduling a cup final and an Edinburgh derby on the same day.

But that's just the way it is.

So we get on with it.

Before the blood pressure starts to rise in Auld Reekie, Saturday sees an abbreviated SPL schedule.

Rangers, still actually a football club with fixtures to fulfil rather than just a business basketcase, travel to Tannadice.

It's a fortnight now since Hearts overcame a half time deficit to beat Rangers at Ibrox.

How will the squad have reacted since then? It's difficult to say. What we do know is that this was far from a vintage Rangers side before the off the pitch implosion. The financial collapse looks to have weakened them further.

That's why Dundee United's odds have been shortened and why many people will fancy them to enjoy back-to-back wins over Rangers for the first time in a decade.

The outcome will be pored over by those looking to gauge the extent of Rangers footballing decline and by those waiting to see if the champions will be beaten to second place by Motherwell.

If United can win and Motherwell can beat Aberdeen then Stuart McCall's team will be level with Rangers on points, although trailing by a massive goal difference discrepancy.

Strange times these, on and off the pitch. Chastened but defiant in their defeat to Celtic last week, I'd not be surprised to see a bullish United performance tomorrow.

Do Rangers have the spirit left to match them?

They certainly look they might struggle at the back. Dorin Goian, Carlos Bocanegra, Steven Whittaker, Kyle Bartley, Kirk Broadfoot and Sasa Papac are all missing. Finding a defence looks like being yet another headache for Ally McCoist.

For their part Motherwell couldn't beat Aberdeen in the cup last week as Mr Brown's boys continued their thrawn 2012 unbeaten record.

Christmas Eve was the last time Aberdeen tasted defeat. Last week they showed that they have some ruthlessness as well as a commendable obstinancy. This now is very much the team that Craig Brown built.

Second place within Motherwell's grasp and the top six not completely beyond Aberdeen. This could be another interesting game at Fir Park.

Finally today, all the saints go marching on Paisley as St Mirren host St Johnstone.

Seven of St Mirren's last eight games have been drawn. That makes St Johnstone's effort in drawing three of their last six look like a fairly pathetic attempt to steal the crown of league stalemate specialists.

It also suggests that the two sides fighting out a draw wouldn't surprise many people.

And so we move on to Sunday.

It's been so long ago since Hibs beat Hearts that I can't even remember who the victorious manager was that day.

No, no. I jest. It was me old mucker Mixu Paatelainen back in May 2009.

There's been little joy for Hibs in these games since then. There's been little joy for Hibs at all since then.

Ahead of this game I hear that Hearts are the more experienced derby team, that they're determined to complete a derby clean sweep this season (there might be another game if Hearts don't qualify for the top six), that they have played better when the players haven't been paid.

So the result should be a foregone conclusion.

It might well be. I don't predict such things anymore.

Hibs are improving and they have better players. They're certainly a very different proposition now: of the team that I expect Pat Fenlon to field only four starters from the New Year defeat at Easter Road will remain.

Do the new players understand the significance of the fixture? That question seems to make a supposition: that the old players did understand the significance of the game.

Fat lot of good it did them.

But these players will know. They don't live in complete isolation and there remains Hibs fans in and around the squad. I surmise that Fenlon - no stranger to local grudge matches in his career - has also come through a crash course in the history of Hibs.

Does any of that matter? It might be a completely unquantifiable variable, although it is one that offers succour to the fans.

Hibs mini revival has coincided with fluctuations in Hearts' form. That means the two sides actually have similar recent records despite a 16 point gap quite correctly illustrating their different fortunes across the season.

Hearts still look to me to have more match winners at their disposal. But that might make a victorious team effort all the sweeter for Hibs. It could be a close one.

Someone will win and gloat and dance and be merry and crack unfunny jokes about the losers who will in turn moan and cry and drink and then start singing again.

Unless it's a draw. Then Hearts will sing and dance and gloat about ten games undefeated and Hibs will sing and dance and think "at least the buggers didn't beat us."

And so, winners or losers, the circle of capital football life will continue.

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SPL Today: Hibs v Hearts

Colin Calderwood recently had the pleasure of meeting me for the first time.

Truth be told, I’d possibly over indulged.

Drink beer and wine you'll feel fine. But when you drink wine and beer you'll feel queer.

Quite.

So my attempts to congratulate him on Hibs’ recent run of form possibly sounded a little like:

“See me, Col, I’m a bit pished.”

But he’s a very approachable chap, smiled benignly and said that he had much work still to do.

And indeed he does.

His tenure at Hibs has been short but not without challenges. He took over a failing team and it continued to fail.

Faced with both a bleak league table and a squad that clearly did not impress him, he then had to use the transfer window to halt a decline that was beginning to look perilously like a manifesto for relegation.

He pulled that off. Hibs have won five of their last six games, only a draw at St Johnstone denying them 18 points from 18.

That’s impressive. More so when we consider that this has been done with a team that bears little resemblance to the one John Hughes started the season with.

It’s quite unusual in Scottish football for a manager to scrape together such a transformation in the January transfer window. It’s unheard of at Easter Road.

So Calderwood has laid aside his faltering start, begun to sweep out the mess left by his predecessor and taken some steps towards convincing the fans that here is a manager who can prosper at a club that has recently shown a remarkable intolerance to any perceived weaknesses in the dugout.

As a Hibs fan all of this heartens me.

And that should mean I’m feeling reasonably confident about today’s derby.

Well, to an extent.

Partly my trepidation comes from too much experience of Hearts-ache. Partly it’s because I am, by nature, predisposed to take a bleak view of the world and everyone and everything that’s in it.

Those are general, lasting reasons for a sense of pre-derby misgiving.

There are also more pressing concerns for this afternoon.

The fact that Hibs haven’t played a competitive game since March 5th means, at the very least, they are going into this one short of match practice or any real guide to their form. That could either be a good thing or a bad thing.

The six game undefeated run has been welcome, it’s been enjoyable and calmed talk of a club in crisis.

But Kilmarnock are the highest placed side to have been beaten. There’s been no test against the Old Firm, no measure of progress against a form team like Dundee United.

A new look side has done well to win so many games as they searched for cohesion and understanding in the squad.

Yet even taking into account the slight halt to Hearts’ progress as they find themselves bogged down in the no man’s land of third place, a derby represents a completely different challenge for Hibs.

They could well prove up to that task but it remains something of a step into the unknown.

Hearts have also won the last four of these clashes and are now undefeated in six. We have to go back to Derek Riordan’s late penalty at Tynecastle in May 2009 for the last Hibs win.

All of which serves to dampen my ardour for proceedings. And yet...

Certainly I’d be disappointed and a touch surprised if Hibs appear as devoid of intent and purpose as they have done in the previous two clashes this season.

This is, for all that they’re relatively untested, a Hibs team with more edge, more thrust and an added stomach for the fight. Hearts should find more resistance as they attempt to impose themselves on Easter Road.

In Richie Towell and Callum Booth the home side have full backs who are capable of giving Hearts’ midfielders and defence pause for thought. Akpo Sodje gives an added dimension in attack, Derek Riordan retains a certain enigmatic quality.

Victor Palsson’s injury in Iceland’s under-21 clash against England is a concern. He’s become a combative component of a midfield that Calderwood has transformed into a more formidable unit. Here’s a 19 year old who does not look like an Edinburgh derby would give him any reason to be fazed.

It’s a different Hibs, a better Hibs.

All of this leaves me searching for a prediction. Into the mix I must throw Hibs’ improvement, Hearts’ slight slips, Hibs’ inactivity, my own pessimism, Hibs’ new faces and the added pressures and dig of a derby clash.

Which, when processed, means?

I really don’t know. I expect this one to be close. I don’t expect Hearts to be able to dictate the way they did earlier in the season.

These are games that rarely throw up treats for the neutral footballing aesthete. If the sides are more evenly matched then we might find the game turning on an individual contribution, be it a flash of brilliance, an honest mistake or a moment of madness.

And that can make a game something of a lottery.

Which drags me inexorably towards predicting a draw. With the proviso that either team could sneak this one by the odd goal.

Apologies if that’s about as decisive as a tactics talk from John Hughes. But there we have it.

I’m feeling sick with nerves already.

Hibs v Hearts: The Tynecastle View

The first of The Scottish Football Blog's derby day previews comes from Craig Cairns, the force behind Three at the Back and a supporter of the boys in maroon:

After two solid months of nothing but Old Firm matches, attention now turns to Easter Road for Scotland’s real showcase football match. Hearts will be looking to make it five wins in-a-row against their Edinburgh rivals but will surely face a sterner test this time around from a resurgent Hibs team.

Hearts without a number of players

Jim Jefferies is without a number of key players heading into Sunday’s match. Eggert Jonsson and Adrian Mrowiec are suspended; Kevin Kyle, Lee Wallace and Calum Elliot are all out injured, whereas Rudi Skacel, Marius Zaliukas and Suso Santana are doubts. Consequently, Hearts find themselves light in almost every area of the pitch.

Whereas Hibs now have a settled back four, the Hearts defence has chopped and changed in recent weeks. Full-back has proved to be a problem position all season. Ruben Palazuelos has deputised adequately for long-term absentee Lee Wallace at left-back but his services would have been more beneficial in the centre of midfield due to the lack of options there.

Right-back has been more of an issue and with Jonsson suspended, Craig Thomson looks set to start. Although a full-back by trade, Thomson has looked unsteady defensively this season and has shown that his best qualities lie in deliveries into the box, be it from open play or from dead ball situations. He started on the right-wing against Dundee United recently but was moved back to his natural position as a consequence of the erratic and reckless performance of Ismael Bouzid.

No matter who starts, right-back is a weak spot in the Hearts back four, which will otherwise consist of a central defensive pairing of Andy Webster and Marius Zaliukas, should the Lithuanian pass fit.

Formation and the midfield battle

At half time in their most recent match, and trailing 1-0 at home to St. Mirren, Jefferies switched his side to a 4-4-2, sacrificing holding midfielder Mrowiec in favour of another striker. Hearts went on to win the match 3-2, however, it would mistaken to deduce from this that they will start with four in midfield and two up front on Sunday.

Hearts were chasing the game and required a dramatic change in approach after an inept first forty-five minutes. Lining-up with a midfield of Skacel and Black flanked by two wingers would inevitably lead to Hearts losing the midfield battle as Hibs have vastly improved in this area since the last time the sides met.

The starting position of Colin Calderwood’s side sees them line-up in a narrow 4-1-3-2 formation, which becomes a 4-2-3-1 of sorts when Martin Scott pushes on, David Wotherspoon pulls wide right and Derek Riordan drops deep and wide left. Victor Palsson is deployed as a regista and is vital to Calderwood’s system. He is also a doubt for Sunday but should he and Skacel overcome their knocks, then this will be one of the game’s key battles. As well as dictating play from deep, Palsson will be tasked of keeping Skacel quiet, a tactic that a few other sides have successfully employed against Hearts in recent months.

From a Hearts perspective, Skacel is expected to not only create and score goals, but, being in that area of the pitch, to pay close attention to Palsson when not in possession. Much like the way he nullified the threat of Liam Miller in Hearts’ 2-0 victory at Easter Road earlier in the season.

Martin Scott is another key man in the Hibs midfield. His energy is exceptional, he looks like he can score goals and is prepared to graft and do the dirty work. I fear that the central midfield of Hearts, which will likely consist of Black and Stevenson as the holding pair with Skacel in a more advanced position, will be overrun and Hibs will dominate as a consequence.

Goals a worry for Hearts

Despite three goals in their most recent outing, Hearts have struggled for to find the net of late, managing only five in the eight matches previous to the victory over St. Mirren. The prolonged absence of Kevin Kyle has left Hearts bereft of an adequate target man. When at their peak this season, the midfield runners of Hearts thrived on Kyle’s ability to hold the ball up and link play.

Hearts have struggled to fill the position since his absence. Stephen Elliott has been marginally better than the other aspirants and will likely start. He has displayed an ability to score a few goals despite not being entirely suited to a lone-striking role. What can be frustrating to watch is when Hearts ignore the obvious mismatch in height between Elliott and most central defenders, yet insist on lumping long balls towards him.

In attack for Hibs, Ricadro Vaz Te looks to be an astute acquisition for Hibs although he has struggled for match fitness. Even more so now that Hibs have just completed an entire month without a competitive match. Whether he or Akpo Sodje starts, the Hibs attack is an entirely different proposition than in recent Edinburgh derbies. Derek Riordan was isolated as a lone-striker in Hearts’ 2-0 win at Easter Road earlier in the season and Valdas Trayks was similarly anonymous in the same role at Tynecastle on New Year’s Day.

Prediction

Hibs are the form side going into the match, unbeaten in the last six, even though five of these matches have been against sides in the bottom six. Nevertheless, how the break has affected Hibs will go a long way to determining the outcome of the match. It will be interesting to see whether a month without a competitive fixture will have a detrimental effect on them or not.

The home side have a settled back four now, Booth and Towell look dangerous when they push on and Stephen Elliott may struggle to get an inch from Dickoh and Hanlon. Without Mrowiec and Jonsson, and with Palazuelos required at left-back, Hearts look weak in the centre of the pitch and I expect Palsson, Scott and Miller to dominate.

Hearts have a lot of players missing and will likely get plenty of men behind the ball and attempt to hit on the break, and if players like Templeton, Skacel and Driver hit form, then Hearts always have a chance of scoring.

1-1.

Follow Craig on Twitter @Threeattheback

Hearts v Hibs: The Last New Year Derby

OK, so Hibs and Hearts have met close to the New Year recently. But this was the last of the New Year's Day fixtures.

A 2-2 all draw on the first day of 1998 that saved Jim Duffy's job long enough for him to complete his mission to relegate Hibs.

The neutral would probably take a four goal thriller today. The similarities with current plights might not be lost on Hibs fans.

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Let's Go Round Again

The first Edinburgh derby of the season comes around and it's full of surprises. For a start both managers are still in place which might be seen as a miracle in itself.

And Derek Riordan is back for Hibs. Back kissing the badge, back scoring the goals.

So much seems the same.

The rumours: Deeks is only getting half what he was on at Celtic, he's shattered the concrete ceiling that was Easter Road's wage structure, Rod Petrie is paying half his wages out of his own pocket and on and on.

The nights out: Deeks trying to sneak into an Edinburgh nightclub despite the city wide ban (you would think club captain Rob Jones would know better than to be an accomplice in that sorry escapade).

But the goals have come and so have the points which makes it seem worth it for the Hibs fans.

Come Sunday though one thing will need to change for the prodigal to complete the fairytale. Hibs have never beaten Hearts when Riordan has appeared on the score sheet...