Friday, May 14, 2010

Predicting the worst

The season is drawing to a close. The Scottish Cup final (more on that later - looking forward to it though) and play-offs apart our job is almost done.

A summer in our now familiar role of spectators beckons, the wallflowers at the school disco as the World Cup begins in South Africa.

I love the World Cup (more on that later too) but it is getting a bit tiresome not being there. I remember just after we failed to qualify for Euro 2000 a friend saying that he thought we'd probably enjoyed a golden period of Scottish football when we were growing up.

10 years on and it looks as if, as far as qualification is concerned, he was bang on the money.

Which brings me neatly to the thorny issue of predictions.

It was way back on the 15th of August, when I was but a twentysomething innocent, that I started doing my (almost) weekly SPL prediction posts.

I thought it would give the blog a certain continuity and structure. In fact it has made me look like a bloody idiot.

Over the course of the season (there was something of a dip during the bad weather of the winter) I have pontificated on the outcome of 177 matches.

I've predicted only 70 correctly. A strike rate of 40%. A full 11% worse than the win ratio that got Tony Mowbray sacked.

It's been a struggle. I console myself with the knowledge that the paucity of class teams in the SPL makes it difficult to know how games are going to go.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Still I've given a few people (especially the St Johnstone cabal that seem to have colonised Twitter) a laugh. And if you can't share some laughter, what can you do?

So I might pick up again at the start of next season. I might even put my money where my mouth is and do a "Bet of the Week."

They can't make people with no money bankrupt, can they? The experience of Rangers would suggest not.

Anyway, to send you on your way here's one last prediction for the season:

The World Cup will not be won by England, Spain, Argentina or North Korea. Fact.